There were 279 murders in the first eight months of 2015, down from 291 in that period in 2014. The General Election (GE) was held on September 7th and the PNM won, replacing the UNC in government. There were 141 murders in the last four months of 2015, up from 112 in 2014. This spike happened mostly in September which saw 122% more killings than September 2014, 49 vs. 22. 2015 finished with 420 murders after starting off on track to come in lower than 2014's 403.

Murders increased 7% compared to 2016, from 462 to 495. With less than half of the 5-year term gone, murders have surpassed a figure not seen since 2010 (473 were killed in that year).

Total murders increased 3% compared to 2018, from 517 to 536, but some things stood out. The first half of 2019 saw 8% fewer murders than that time in 2018, a welcome change. Another Local Gov't Election was expected at year's end, and was held on December 2nd. But July to November saw a 15% increase in murders. 2019 switched from trending lower than 2018 to trending higher. Why? And why in those months?

On December 31st, heavily armed gunmen opened fire on passengers and passersby at a taxi stand in downtown Port-of-Spain. Out of the nine injured, one woman later died. Analysis of the incident revealed that there were no rival gang members or specific persons of interest to the shooters in the vicinity. But it was revealed that a gang leader allegedly issued an instruction to "ensure that the homicide rate for 2019 crossed the previous record (set in) 2008." [Report Pgs. 10-11, points n) to x)]* - A General Election was due within less than a year.

The second-half total of 281 became the largest half-year total according to monthly stats available from the Trinidad & Tobago Police Service (TTPS). However, 2008's record of 547 killings remained intact for a while longer.

* "p) The shootings were sporadic [i.e. random], in particular at persons who were in no way connected with crime. There was no motive of robbery, gang or domestic violence and as a result the Ministry and other agencies started monitoring this;" (Emphasis added.)

The first half of 2021 saw 177 murders, the second half 271, a 53% increase. This was possibly the biggest escalation of violence we've ever seen within a single year, as COVID-19 was having less of an effect on free movement. Gary Griffith's 3-year contract as Commissioner of Police was not renewed in August and there was further contention over this non-renewal, and over procedures for CoP appointments. 448 murders were committed in total, 13% more than 2020. This was the third time in a row that the year immediately after a PNM General Election victory was marked by a double-digit percentage increase in the murder toll.

2023 brought a record-breaking 338 murders up to July 31st (vs. 324 in 2022). The LGE was held in August. Murders were 15% lower in the four months after the election (180), compared to 2022 (213). Higher before, lower after. As at September 30th, in just those 9 months, the TTPS categorized 99 murders under "unknown motives," the second-largest category behind "gang-related.”

"This thing that is going on where they are just going around killing innocent people’s children, I don’t know for what reason, they have to just stop it. I am fed up with crime.” The words of Kerry-Ann Jacob*, grieving mother of 18-year-old entrepreneur Kaylon Jacob, who was gunned down while delivering a meal to a customer from his grilled food business. "THEY'RE KILLING INNOCENTS" by Ryan Hamilton-Davis, NEWSDAY, July 23rd, 2023.

With the reduction in killings after the LGE, 2023 finished with “only” 577 murders, below the new record just set in 2022, but still well above the alleged mission total of 550. Both 2022 and 2024 had over 200 murders from September to December. 2023 finished below 600 only because of the dip after the election.

*Compare this mother's plea with the authorities' observations of late 2019/early 2020, from the previously mentioned JSC Report, Pg. 10, points o) and p).

The SoE ended on April 13th, at which point there were 112 murders for the year, 48 less than 2024’s 160 at that date, a 30% drop. 112 murders in 103 days, still more than one per day during a State of Emergency. However, murders did not return to the high levels of 2024 after the SoE, not in May, or June, or July, although a return to higher numbers [third-to-last paragraph] tends to be the norm. The SoE was judged a failure by an Opposition MP and we can understand why, if it is assumed that most gunmen and illegal firearms remained on the streets thereafter. Logically then, the General Election was the next event most likely to impact the murder toll, as apparently happened in 2015.

By our calculations*, the combined total of murders for May and June was the lowest two-month total, of any two consecutive months, since the crime-reducing effects of COVID-19 back in 2020-2021 (N.B. we have not yet seen monthly figures for 2025's first SoE for comparison). Almost miraculously, there were only about 60 murders altogether, compared to 104 in May-June 2024, a 42% drop. 60, perhaps as few as 59 dead in 61 days, less than one per day. Does this mean that the election result brought about a greater reduction in murders than the SoE did? Why would this be the case, if that's what happened?

Curiously, one TV station posed this loaded question in a viewer poll in early July: “Are you concerned that there has been no reduction in the country’s murder rate?” They did not provide any figures to back up the claim suggested within the question. But a media organization of that size and reputation should have known that the reduction in murders was nearing the 100 mark, as was revealed the following Sunday. That's actually a very real reduction. The difference of 48 more than doubled to 99 from mid-April to mid-July, with no SoE or any new anti-crime plan in place. Why would anyone want this fact to be covered up? There was a General Election, a certain result, and a notable drop in murders year-on-year, unlike 2015. Why pretend otherwise?

On July 18th 2025, the nation found itself under another SoE due to an alleged "threat" that had nothing to do with homicide rates according to the TTPS [9th paragraph]. Naturally then, citizens can't be blamed for speculating: Who exactly was under threat? What did they do or not do that angered and united the criminal elements? Did they make any arrangements with these criminals and then not keep their side of the deal?

Hopefully we'll know the whole truth soon.

*According to the Trinidad Express article referenced above, there were 81 murders between April 28th and July 12th. With even preliminary monthly murder stats unavailable from the TTPS (it's a mystery why), we looked to a social media personality who seems to provide a plausible day-by-day count of the figures for each month, apparently sourced from media and/or TTPS reports. According to him, there were 19 murders from July 1st to July 12th (his figure is supported by this article which says that there were 22 killings up to July 14th, although its headline is misleading). Between April 28th and 30th there were at least 2 murders, also based on his figures. Therefore, there were about 60 murders at most between May 1st and June 30th. From 2022 to 2024, May and June together totalled 75, 95, and 104 murders respectively.

If allegations published in the media and by our Parliament are true, as Trinidad & Tobago Police Service statistics suggest they are, hundreds of innocent citizens have been murdered in this country in the last decade for the sake of a political agenda. Therefore going forward, Trinidad & Tobago may need its own modified version of South Africa's Truth and Reconciliation Commission:

"The Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) was a court-like restorative justice body assembled in South Africa in 1996 after the end of apartheid. Authorized by Nelson Mandela and chaired by Desmond Tutu, the commission invited witnesses who were identified as victims of gross human rights violations to give statements about their experiences, and selected some for public hearings. Perpetrators of violence could also give testimony and request amnesty from both civil and criminal prosecution." [Wikipedia]

Our experiences are nowhere near theirs, but no less important to address in a sober, systematic, and future-positive way. We have 931 reasons why, plus over a million more.